Jing Liu: Great Companies Don't Win a Single Battle — They Never Leave the Field | End of 2025

"Test early, fail fast, learn faster." By Jing Liu, 5Y Capital

As the year draws to a close, and before the annual retrospectives and future predictions start flooding in, Waves invited a group of investors known for their thoughtfulness to share what they most want to say at year's end. This is the first piece, from Jing Liu, founding partner of 5Y Capital.

This article comes from Liu's opening speech at 5Y Capital's recent annual founder conference. This year's theme was "Prompt() · Emergence," pointing to our current era without standard answers, where AI is reconstructing the world at an unprecedented pace. After the post-pandemic recovery, the baptism of cycles, and the reshaping of global tech competition, every individual caught in the middle is trying to find that certain anchor through the fog.

Where exactly is the future headed?

This was not only Liu's personal confusion, but also the collective anxiety of China's entire venture capital community. People are asking: in this era no longer offering easy dividends from model innovation, how should we position ourselves? Cling to past glory, or start from zero in completely unfamiliar territory?

Liu chose the latter. But rather than masking the pain of transformation with stirring slogans, he chose to dissect his own journey as an "obsolete investor." In his words, one can see a kind of reconciliation with the times and with himself: accepting anxiety as a constant. And when all variables are fluctuating violently, perhaps the only unchanging optimal strategy is to stay in the game, don't leave the table, keep growing.

"The End of 2025" is still accepting submissions. Thinkers from the business world and capital markets are welcome to reach out through our backend or at chenzhiyan@36kr.com. We believe that as times change, only genuine thinking endures.

Part 01

Don't Trap Yourself

I entered the investment industry around 1999 and 2000. It's been more than twenty years. China's internet was just taking off then; today I count as someone "already obsolete" in tech investing. And between 2015 and 2017, when 5Y internally discussed whether to move from model innovation into hard tech — our knowledge reserves and investment experience were completely blank — and even boldly discussed whether to enter biomedicine, I understood absolutely nothing.

Recently many friends in the industry have told me that your biomedicine investments seem to be doing quite well. What's interesting is that those who come to discuss this aren't just young people, but also friends who entered the industry around the same time I did. I've gradually realized that this isn't really a challenge of industry knowledge or investment capability, but a mental challenge when facing entirely new paradigms.

Our generation of investors has lived through the evolution from PC internet to mobile internet to hard tech, and now must understand biotechnology beyond information technology — this is thorough cross-boundary work. Many people ask me: "How did you dare to do it?" I often think about this myself. So I particularly understand the state of founders currently undergoing AI transformation — none of us are "AI-native," nor are we "biomedicine-native."

When 5Y entered biomedicine, almost nobody was optimistic, even internally there was full of doubt. At the time I found a young person with zero investment experience, named Xutian Jing — also "ignorance is bliss." What I was really challenging was a very fundamental question: whether 5Y's methodology possessed "generalization capability."

My undergraduate degree was in automation; I studied pattern recognition and early artificial intelligence. Intelligent systems in that era mostly remained at the PID regulation stage, using calculus algorithms for continuous control. Models emphasized "robustness" and couldn't achieve true "generalization." And what we call AI "emergence" today is essentially generalization — producing new capabilities in never-before-seen situations.

By the same token, if our investments could achieve breakthroughs in a completely unfamiliar field, that would demonstrate that 5Y's methodology and our investment capabilities truly possessed cross-paradigm generalizability. Those years were extremely difficult, accompanied by much skepticism and self-doubt. But it was precisely in that torment that my understanding of the "infinite game" gradually took shape.

I later summarized: I think people are often trapped by themselves — trapped by their own success, trapped by their own failure, trapped by the time they've invested, path dependency, and accumulated experience. Past experience is both a source of security and potentially a shackle on forward movement.

The "infinite game" isn't a cure-all theory either. It's a mindset, a way of thinking that maintains openness and exploration in the face of uncertainty. Breaking through is inherently difficult; you can't solve all problems by saying "play the infinite game." What truly supports it is an entire deeper set of thinking and capabilities — continuous learning, and learning without boundaries.

When you have an "infinite game" mentality, no matter what new things you face, you can maintain curiosity and courage, and won't be dominated by fear. Failure is no longer an endpoint for you, but just a new input.

Part 02

Is China Still Investable?

In the years before and after the pandemic, the entire entrepreneurship and investment circles were permeated by a relatively pessimistic atmosphere. I felt that 5Y was something of a minority. During that time, we had a conviction that China was entering a flourishing cycle of Innovation 2.0. At every LP annual meeting I would speak "brazenly" about this, and the LPs in the audience would often ask me in return: "Is China still investable?"

This year, during our founder conference, I felt especially encouraged — precisely because the views I've insisted on expressing over the past few years are being recognized by more and more people. This restoration of confidence is manifested not only among investors, but also among entrepreneurs. For example, Mr. Zhao of DEEPEXI, who just completed his IPO, came back to share his experience. Stories like this are becoming more and more numerous, letting me genuinely feel a kind of "validated optimism." What I believed has finally resonated with the mood of the times.

Many people ask me: Why can you maintain such optimism? I've spoken about many objective reasons for optimism in the past. For example, although China no longer has demographic dividends, we've welcomed engineer dividends. Or, I've proposed a "flywheel effect of Innovation 2.0." These are rational thoughts. But there's also a part I've never had the chance to discuss in depth — my confidence in Chinese culture itself.

Deep in Chinese civilization there is actually a unique narrative. From myths like the Foolish Old Man Removes the Mountains and Jingwei Fills the Sea, to the history of Chen Sheng and Wu Guang's "Are kings and nobles born to their rank?" — it reflects the spirit in Chinese bones of refusing to accept the status quo, of refusing to admit defeat. I've always believed that the spirit of Chinese entrepreneurs is world-class entrepreneurial spirit. It didn't appear in modern times, but continues thousands of years of cultural foundation.

Looking back at history, our civilization has been knocked down many times, but never knocked out. Generation after generation has worked for revival. I often think: compared to the 1800s, the early twentieth century, or even the mid-twentieth century, the challenges we face today really amount to nothing. Conversely, Chinese entrepreneurs today may be in one of the luckiest, most resource-rich, most creative eras in five thousand years of civilization. The so-called new cycle of revival has only just begun. So the encouragement I feel today comes not only from shifts in market signals, but from my long-term understanding of China. This is my confidence in China, my confidence in innovation, my confidence in civilizational resilience.

Part 03

An Era Belonging to Individuals Yet Possessing Industrial-Grade Productivity

What I truly feel today is: every field is demonstrating its own vitality in different ways, through different paths. You can see emergence in biomedicine, emergence in new materials, and also the diversity of coexistence between internationalization and localization. In AI, some are extending existing businesses, some are transforming and reconstructing — these are all different forms of "emergence."

The theme of this year's founder conference was "Emergence." In the final discussions, I joined the consumer group. At first everyone joked that "we probably have the least to talk about with AI." I shared a perspective at the time: AI currently seems somewhat distant from the consumer industry only because it's still in the first half — still in the "building models," "building technology" phase. But when it truly reaches the second half, when AI's value is to be fully amplified, it will definitely be most relevant to consumer.

The evolution of human technology and commerce is actually a continuously cycling curve. The earliest was the individual handicraft era, everything starting from the craftsman spirit, one person taking one thing to its extreme. Then came industrial civilization, emphasizing scaled production and standardization. But now, with the arrival of artificial intelligence, we are entering a new kind of "reverse evolution," from "large-scale" back to "small yet strong."

In the future there will be large numbers of "one-person companies" and "ten-person companies" that may still achieve market caps in the billions or even hundreds of billions. Because artificial intelligence allows "one person" to possess both the creative power of craftsman spirit and the scaling capability of industrial civilization. One person can also mobilize resources that previously required a factory or an organization to complete. This will be an era that belongs to individuals yet possesses industrial-grade productivity.

What truly excites about AI is not how large its scale is today or how high its valuations are, but that sooner or later it will become the business of every industry, every person. When AI enters every person's life, every industry's logic, every enterprise's decision-making — only then has the AI era truly arrived.

Part 04

Narrative Creates Miracles

In the AI era, we must also confront another more fundamental question: if AI becomes increasingly powerful, then what is humanity's unique capability? I want to shift the angle and ask: why is it that humans created miracles that other species cannot? What is the uniquely human capability?

In a book I very much enjoy, Sapiens, there's an answer: humans became the dominant species on Earth not because of muscular strength, nor because of individual intelligence, but because humans have a special capability — the ability to believe in narratives.

Only humans will cooperate with each other for fictional narratives — civilization, nations, money, religion, law. Based on shared narratives, humans establish institutions, form scaled trust, and turn imagination about the future into present reality. This is a powerful capability. From the pyramids of ancient Egypt to China's Dujiangyan irrigation system — because of belief in shared narratives, without blueprints, cranes, or modern engineering and technology, they completed systematic miracles 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