2025 Is the Year That Will Decide the Future of Commercial Space | XinXing PORTFOLIO

As founder of LandSpace, a leading Chinese commercial aerospace company, Zhang Changwu has guided his team from the "first flight failure" of a liquid oxygen-methane rocket to the "world's first orbital launch" using that propellant combination, and onward toward the vast frontier of reusable rockets. His entrepreneurial philosophy reveals the survival laws of hard-tech industries: technological ideals must be tempered with engineering patience, and scale barriers must be forged through organizational resilience.

In a recent interview with Jiemian News, Zhang offered three contrarian insights: How do you choose a "difficult but correct" technical path? How do you combat capital anxiety with a "ten-year timeframe"? And how do efficiency gaps force systemic innovation?

Zhang's entrepreneurial journey is not merely a microcosm of China's commercial aerospace sector — it is a mirror for all hard-tech founders.

The following conversation is from Jiemian News's exclusive interview with Zhang Changwu in mid-January 2025:

For Zhang Changwu and LandSpace — formally Beijing LandSpace Technology Corporation — the global first of Zhuque-2 as the first liquid oxygen-methane launch vehicle to reach orbit was merely the starting point of a grander blueprint.

As China's first private enterprise engaged in launch vehicle development, LandSpace has been operating for nearly a decade.

In October 2018, LandSpace conducted China's first private orbital launch attempt, but the solid-fuel Zhuque-1 failed. The company subsequently focused on developing the liquid oxygen-methane Zhuque-2, which eventually succeeded in July 2023, followed by consecutive orbital missions that same year.

In 2024, the successful launch of the improved Zhuque-2 Y1 rocket pushed the company from an "R&D era" into an "operations era." Having experienced rapid growth, LandSpace now faces the trials of its next decade.

Currently, China's commercial aerospace industry has entered a 2.0 phase, with private companies and launch vehicle models both reaching double-digit counts. In the liquid rocket segment focused on cost reduction and reusability, what opportunities and challenges await LandSpace and its active and in-development Zhuque series?

Zhang Changwu, Founder, Chairman and CEO of LandSpace. Image source: LandSpace

Jiemian News: How do you assess the commercial aerospace industry's development last year? Looking ahead from the start of this year, what are your expectations for 2025?

Zhang Changwu: Looking back at 2024, the country's launch volume fell somewhat short of targets and lags significantly behind the United States. But this needs to be examined from both surface phenomena and underlying operational realities. Phenomena are phase-specific; changes are normal as commercial aerospace sorts out its relationship with state-owned space entities. From an internal operations perspective, 2024 was a year of building momentum for China's commercial aerospace sector, laying thorough groundwork for future successes.

2025 will be a pivotal year for domestic commercial aerospace development.

This year, several major national satellite internet projects will enter critical phases of establishing preliminary relationships in product and market collaboration. It will also be the year when the industry begins to determine corporate survival through commercialization, with decisive implications for future sector landscape.

More new rocket types will launch this year, with increased launch frequency and substantial rises in the number of satellites orbited and payload mass. Against this backdrop, China's space access capabilities will take a major step forward. The 2025-2030 period will more authentically reflect China's space infrastructure capabilities.

Jiemian News: What are LandSpace's specific plans for 2025? How do you view the company's future prospects and strategic positioning?

Zhang Changwu: In 2025, LandSpace will focus on the maiden flight of Zhuque-3, a reusable liquid rocket. The company has spent over three years on its development. If successful, this would be the most significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace industry since its ten-year inception. LandSpace would also become the earliest domestic company — and the earliest outside of SpaceX — to achieve rocket recovery. Zhuque-3 will become the workhorse rocket of China's commercial aerospace sector.

During this critical two-year window, I hope the industry's tolerance for failure can improve; perspectives on phenomena during product validation will need to shift. Accelerating industry development requires not only technology and policy, but also changes in industry and societal cognition.

LandSpace's future development must transition from resource and product-driven approaches to market-led growth. LandSpace already has the mature Zhuque-2 series in commercial operation. Following Zhuque-3's maiden flight and successful first-stage recovery, the company will have two operational rocket products.

Based on accumulated experience over recent years, LandSpace has achieved full-process capabilities covering rocket design, manufacturing, testing, and launch. Going forward, LandSpace needs to win in the market, achieve self-sustaining profitability, and hopes to secure a prominent market share in national satellite internet projects.

Jiemian News: When is Zhuque-3's maiden flight expected? How confident is LandSpace?

Zhang Changwu: Zhuque-3 is planned for launch within this year's third quarter, with conditions to enter the launch pad starting in June.

From the second half of the year onward, various aerospace companies will enter a relatively intensive launch window. Throughout LandSpace's nearly decade-long development, we have consistently advanced according to our own capabilities and pace, without deliberately pursuing firsts. However, from perspectives of product readiness and supplier technology, LandSpace is positioned to take the lead in large reusable liquid rockets, with clear competitive advantages.

Jiemian News: Domestic commercial aerospace has passed its ten-year mark. What support do you believe the industry has received? What issues still need resolution for future development?

Zhang Changwu: Past industry support has manifested first in policy-level positioning that provided direction. Second, policy orientation has brought resource investment. Third, specific projects like satellite internet constellation construction have pulled the entire industry forward.

Future commercial aerospace development won't see directional changes, though challenges differ by phase. Early on, for instance, the industry faced corporatization challenges — there were previously no private enterprises serving as prime contractors for rockets and satellites.

From a technology and product development perspective, industry capabilities have reached new heights. What matters going forward is confronting international commercial aerospace competition, which will likely intensify.

On commercialization, the industry must withstand market tests. Compared to other sectors, commercial aerospace faces more complex challenges — longer value chains, plus the fact that value realization for products like low-earth orbit satellite internet requires time.

In coming years, commercial aerospace enterprises will shift from self-development to direct competition. The dominant theme in this domain will be low-earth orbit satellite internet construction. This endeavor involves many new areas, such as orbital resources and space governance rules — all fundamentally novel propositions.

Previously, low-earth orbit development hadn't reached current levels of intensity. With the wave of satellite internet construction in both China and the United States, the application value and industrial transformation the market can unleash are enormous.

Moreover, China's commercial aerospace development needs to enter international discourse systems, establish competitive capabilities, and gain initiative, in order to protect the enormous resources invested. The industry also needs to more rapidly validate low-cost, high-performance capabilities; future policy focus will center on activating efficiency and innovation capacity.

Jiemian News: Is "lack of funding" still a significant constraint on commercial aerospace enterprise development?

Zhang Changwu: What commercial aerospace currently faces is not a funding shortage, but rather innovation capability and operational efficiency challenges.

Solving the latter depends crucially on market environment and future industry participants. I hope to see deeper involvement from more social forces and private enterprises across various segments. This also requires more institutional innovation, particularly in major and sensitive domains like communications.

Jiemian News: Since last year, China's low-earth orbit satellite internet has entered its construction phase, bringing explosive demand for rocket companies. What role does LandSpace play in this?

Zhang Changwu: China's low-earth orbit satellite internet constellations have two confirmed national-level construction entities: China Satellite Network Group and Shanghai's Qianfan constellation. LandSpace is not only developing products in the launch vehicle segment, but has also begun advancing product development for complete satellites and key satellite subsystems.

LandSpace's primary goal remains supporting the overall national satellite internet construction project, enabling efficient, high-quality, cost-effective project execution. When the state clarifies direct project implementation entities to solve efficiency problems and effectively pull industry development, LandSpace has substantial potential in supporting relationships.

Jiemian News: Globally, SpaceX's Starlink leads by a wide margin in both scale and development speed. How large do you believe the China-US commercial aerospace gap is?

Zhang Changwu: China and the United States have inherent differences in satellite internet construction objectives. China should not simply replicate the American Starlink system; the two countries differ enormously in their needs and market structures. China's satellite internet construction planning must be based on serviceable market expectations, including constellation positioning, scale, and construction pace.

Currently, competition exists between the two countries. Orbital resources are finite; as future space payloads increase, rules for space access will change. In terms of space access capabilities and on-orbit satellite payload capacity, China faces enormous challenges.

If China cannot achieve rocket reusability and dramatically improve satellite delivery and payload capabilities within the next two years, the China-US gap will widen further.

After LandSpace's Zhuque-3 achieves first-stage reuse, its price per kilogram to orbit could undercut SpaceX's Falcon 9. But they have now introduced the Starship system. Optimistically speaking, during 2026-2030, China would be using Falcon 9-class rockets as its mainstay, while the United States would have Starship, with Falcon 9 simultaneously in service. This would maintain an order-of-magnitude gap in launch pricing between the two countries.

Based on current Chinese commercial aerospace development momentum, judging from enterprise innovation capabilities and results, another 3-5 years, or by 2030 at the latest, China's overall capabilities could be comparable to the United States. But this still involves the regulatory model adaptation to development efficiency mentioned earlier.

The ultimate competitiveness of commercial aerospace in both countries lies in efficiency. For example, SpaceX received tremendous support in permit processing and other aspects at its launch facilities, improving efficiency. These factors accelerated Starship system development and deployment, and also accelerated Starlink's on-orbit satellite delivery speed.

In China, the answer is currently less clear. Enterprises need to pull or倒逼 [force through their capabilities], or offer more constructive suggestions.

Jiemian News: By year-end, SpaceX's valuation had exceeded $350 billion, making it the world's largest unicorn. Can China produce a commercial aerospace giant of comparable scale?

Zhang Changwu: SpaceX's high valuation and rapid development are mutually reinforcing. Launch vehicles require enormous capital for validation. SpaceX spent massive funds on comprehensive ground testing during its innovation process, and its high valuation will in turn help the company develop better. Beyond validation itself, commercial aerospace also needs a relatively permissive environment — this is a matter of social cognition, requiring longer cycles to establish such a culture.

Can China produce an enterprise of SpaceX's scale? Currently, this must carry a question mark. Too many non-technical factors are involved. Even if possible, its form would inevitably differ enormously from the American model.

Jiemian News: How do you view the future competitive landscape for commercial rockets?

Zhang Changwu: Concentration in commercial aerospace will increase going forward. Because projects are massive in scale and price significantly impacts the industry, if a company can achieve breakthrough pricing first, very little market share and survival opportunity will remain for others.

Domestic commercial aerospace has entered deep waters. Going forward, continuous cost reduction through technological innovation, and the policy and physical space needed to drive larger rocket development, will increasingly exceed what enterprises themselves can control, increasingly becoming matters for society and national-level consideration.

Jiemian News: What is LandSpace in your vision? Have you set a fixed goal for the company?

Zhang Changwu: Frankly, Chinese commercial aerospace remains in a followership development model — following SpaceX. But following is not copying; it means fully leveraging experience accumulated during their development process. This means LandSpace's goal-setting has been quite specific: achieving reuse first this year; in the new decade, hoping to achieve flight validation of a 10-meter-class rocket, so LandSpace can earn a seat at the table for next-generation launch vehicles.

An IPO is not among the company's operational objectives. Many factors are involved; it is not something to be pursued. For technology enterprises, there is only one goal: making products that can benchmark against world-class standards.

Commercial aerospace offers enormous breadth and depth for entrepreneurship. I wouldn't claim rockets are my final entrepreneurial battle, but I will certainly continue. For commercial rockets specifically, this is a career that cannot reach its end in 20-30 years.

Founded in 2022, Heart Capital is a China-based early-stage venture capital fund focused on technology and digitalization. The Heart Capital team is primarily composed of Yan Han, founding partner of Lightspeed China, core investors, a CFO, and seasoned investors from industry. The team's past investments include Xpeng Motors (NYSE: XPEV, 09868.HK) at Series A, Full Truck Alliance (NYSE: YMM), as well as FinVolution (NYSE: FINV), RoboSense (02498.HK), Baichuan, Yunmanman Cold Chain, Dedao, World Logistics, Micro-nano Starry Sky, LandSpace, Lanhu, Starfield, and others. Rooted in China with a global outlook, Heart Capital is dedicated to finding true value in non-consensus. Heart Capital respects the value of "people" and advocates for the potential of "heart," looking forward to accompanying more young Chinese entrepreneurs to strengthen China and go global.