2025 Global Expansion Playbook: Navigating Uncertainty and Optimal Strategies for Globalization | Unity Ventures Global Salon Highlights
A Playbook for Going Global in the United States, Europe, and Emerging Markets
The latest round of US-China trade talks has concluded, yet undercurrents continue to ripple through the global economy. For the foreseeable future, there will be no clear endpoint to the tariff war. The great-power contest will evolve slowly through fragmented, phased, and domain-specific compromises.
Chinese companies' march toward globalization won't stop because of external turbulence. Building a worst-case-scenario mindset for this new era of globalization is the most practical step right now. Unity Ventures recently held a closed-door globalization seminar in Shenzhen, inviting portfolio company founders and industry experts to explore fresh approaches to going global — with deep dives into the United States, Europe, and emerging markets like Southeast Asia.
Conditions may improve, but prepare for the worst.
Xiao Ang, Founder of Squirrel Dynamics: Countering Tariffs Through China R&D, Global Supply, Local Assembly
When Trump raised tariffs in April, I studied how American RV companies handled them. I found that none had shifted their supply chains — because over 90% of RV parts come from China, with no alternative supply chains elsewhere. Their only tool was raising prices. High tariffs simply aren't sustainable.
While there's rhetoric about reshoring manufacturing to the US, many Americans understand it's largely unrealistic. The US hasn't had a base of manufacturing engineers for 30 years. Meanwhile, China's supply chain has evolved from labor-intensive to technology and talent-intensive. China's manufacturing advantage now lies not in cost, but in irreplaceable technical R&D and craftsmanship.
For example, when tariffs rose in 2018, Anker moved some production to Vietnam — only to find that Vietnamese factories added management costs without reducing total costs. So they moved some capacity back to China. It's a dynamic process.
So how do we handle tariffs going forward? In the RV sector where I operate, we leverage new energy vehicle supply chains. Short-term measures include raising prices and proper, legal customs declarations. Long-term, the answer is China R&D, global supply, and local assembly.
In the NEV supply chain, Chinese manufacturers have already built factories in the US and Europe, giving them overseas capabilities to supply products abroad. So "global supply" doesn't mean buying raw materials from American or European companies — it means Chinese supply chain companies going global themselves, supplying on a global basis, then assembling locally. The US has policy protections; local legislators introduce bills to protect domestic employment, making it hard for foreign companies to enter. Providing local assembly and jobs may be the best way around this.
Long-term, which industries or products can best withstand tariff risks? Looking at North American RV sales over the past five years, total volume declined after 2021, but RVs priced above $100,000 saw rising prices. Through various economic crises, wealth distribution in Western markets has become more polarized — the rich have gotten richer. The high-end market faces the least disruption; high-margin products have stronger resilience against supply chain and tariff risks.
Bu Rui, Partner at Fangda Partners: Supply Chain Risk Response and Startup Overseas Structuring
Country-of-Origin Supply Chain Risks
The US Tariff Act of 1930 explicitly requires that all imported foreign articles be marked with their country of origin. Country-of-origin determination is central to US tariff policy enforcement, and the US maintains a complex system of origin rules. Common misconceptions include:
Misconception 1: Country of origin equals exporting country — as long as a product isn't exported from China, it's not Chinese-origin.
US tariffs targeting China apply to products "from China" or "of China." Simply changing the geographic export location doesn't change "country of origin" — assessment under US origin rules is required to determine whether a new product origin is created.
Beyond products wholly produced, manufactured, or grown in a specific country, there's the "substantial transformation" standard: for products containing materials from multiple countries, if the last country substantially transforms it into a new and different article with a distinct name, character, and use from its materials or pre-transformation product, that last country is deemed the origin. The key is where "substantial transformation" occurs.
Misconception 2: Assembly equals substantial transformation — as long as a product is assembled outside China, it's not Chinese-origin.
Some companies are considering moving final manufacturing steps, such as assembly, outside China to shed "Chinese origin" status. However, whether supply chain restructuring satisfies US Customs' standard of "change in name, character, and use" depends heavily on case-specific facts: the nature of manufacturing processes, value added, the essential character of imported parts or materials, and more.
Additionally, import/export companies should heighten risk awareness and guard against enforcement risks from US Customs due to underreported prices or inaccurate declarations.
ESG-Related Supply Chain Risks
Europe and the US have enacted various ESG-related regulations in recent years, with rising attention to ESG compliance. We must strengthen supply chain compliance systems and build management frameworks covering the full supply chain process to achieve comprehensive, clear, and transparent reflection of product supply chains, avoiding environmental pollution and other issues that could trigger compliance risks.
Sanctions-Related Supply Chain Risks
Avoid business dealings with entities on sanctions blacklists like the SDN List (Specially Designated Nationals), countries under comprehensive US sanctions, and industries subject to US sanctions. Also guard against "secondary sanctions" risks: avoid providing material assistance to or engaging in significant transactions with SDNs subject to secondary sanctions, and avoid business in industries under secondary sanctions — currently more prevalent under sanctions programs for Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia.
Supply Chain Risk Response Measures
Companies may consider building relatively independent domestic and international operating structures to reduce compliance and political risks. Under the dual circulation concept, startups can establish relatively independent and parallel operating architectures for the China market and overseas markets, including separate supply chains, brand systems, and even legal entities, to reduce geopolitical risk impacts on overseas business.
Companies can enhance industrial chain fundamentals through "internal circulation," breaking through bottlenecks constraining supply chain security and strengthening control over key links. Through "external circulation," they can build overseas supply chains: shifting from export to "producing abroad, selling abroad" and "dedicated materials for dedicated supply," establishing independent overseas legal entities to avoid being seen by European and American regulators as "typically Chinese companies."
Overseas equity structure types include:
1. Direct overseas subsidiary establishment: Consider setting up an overseas holding company to achieve tax reduction or somewhat mitigate geopolitical risk. More suitable for companies whose future investor profile is RMB funds, with domestic listing plans, or those with several rounds of domestic financing and complex domestic shareholder structures.
2. Red-chip structure: Companies that naturally attract USD investors and have capital market paths on overseas exchanges may consider a red-chip structure, reorganizing their purely domestic structure into a group with a Cayman or offshore holding company as parent, holding China operating entities and other overseas operating entities through a series of offshore structures.
3. Parallel structure model: The domestic company's original shareholding structure remains unchanged; founders and investors separately establish overseas companies to develop overseas business. Relatively few companies use parallel structures in practice. For companies with mirrored domestic and foreign shareholders or relatively aligned commercial interests, or those heavily impacted by geopolitical risks needing deep separation of Chinese and overseas operations, parallel structures may be considered.
Qiu Xiaobo, Former Xiaomi Western Europe GTM Head and Former POCO Global Head: Deep Pits to Avoid in the European Market
First Stop in Europe
Among European countries, most Chinese companies choose Spain as their first stop, for several reasons: stronger China-Spain relations, and within Western Europe's overall GDP, Spaniards are more receptive to cost-effective products. Conversely, in the UK and German markets, locals are more brand-driven — building brand takes time. Second, Spain offers higher marginal returns. Spanish radiates throughout Latin America, and success in Spain lays groundwork for entering neighboring countries like France and Italy with more confidence.
Common Pitfalls in Europe
First, never fight guerrilla warfare. Europe is a market that requires patience — building brand and conducting market research slowly, understanding user profiles and channel characteristics. For example, the UK is extremely channel and brand-focused: 80% of phone sales come through carriers. Without carrier partnerships, relying only on e-commerce and direct-to-consumer channels, you can't become a top brand locally.
Second, take European compliance and IP seriously from early stages. Proactively assess IP risks to avoid competitor strikes at some future point. Many Chinese companies in Europe face this risk: after gaining certain market share, they encounter patent issues requiring astronomical licensing fees. Risk assessment must be front-loaded.
Third, choose reliable agents. Some agents are easy to partner with but carry hidden risks — for instance, agents who continuously stockpile inventory, then suddenly demand fire-sale prices at volume and charge hefty clearance fees. Agents with high upfront demands who are difficult to partner with may actually be more reliable; they're more willing to discuss the essence of the business with you.
Lessons from Pitfalls
First, localization — of staff, strategy, and product. Headquarters-assigned employees think from a domestic perspective, different from local staff. At the management level, configure both local and Chinese staff simultaneously. The advantage of this dual setup: local staff excel at dealing with local government and partners, while Chinese staff handle headquarters reporting and communication. Strategy must also localize — European e-commerce costs far exceed China's, making full-channel distribution appropriate rather than e-commerce-only. Products can be locally customized, such as building an e-commerce-specific brand.
Second, proceed step by step. A common mistake is assuming more channels and more countries equals more sales — this is paradoxical. When you can't execute a single channel well, you won't open another country or channel. For example, master Amazon first to demonstrate product potential, then enter other retail channels; or succeed in Spain first, then tackle harder markets.
Zhang Chi, Partner at GreenVoltis: Core Executives Must Go Overseas Themselves; Don't Rely on Overseas Chinese Circles for BD
GreenVoltis is an AI-native virtual power plant aggregator focused on the European market. Virtual power plants manage new energy assets, operating energy storage assets for higher returns — in Europe, mainly participating in grid services and electricity spot trading. Our business is currently in Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Poland. We chose to first capture market share in the less competitive, higher-revenue Nordic region.
AI can help new energy assets achieve higher yields. Europe fundamentally lags behind China and the US in software R&D and AI application. Chinese technology is more advanced and lower-cost, so Chinese R&D capability is a plus in the European market.
Our core team is predominantly European locals. In management, core executives must go overseas themselves — remote management doesn't work. If founders and co-founders can't relocate, send a trusted senior executive to station in key markets. Our experience: find core team members who are truly aligned, who believe entrepreneurship offers better career development. Also prioritize finding talent from this or adjacent industries — these two factors outweigh language and nationality.
Second, understand local talent market characteristics and deeply comprehend target countries' employment regulations and tax policies. In European countries, hiring someone may be easy, but firing them can cost four to five times the effort and expense.
Third, build an attractive employer brand and corporate culture. European employees highly value company values and brand image. This can be achieved through LinkedIn operations — posting company updates, employee stories — and actively attending summits to meet local professionals.
For business development, if conditions permit, don't rely on overseas Chinese circles; local professional managers more easily access mainstream circles. Don't limit yourself to local Chinese chambers of commerce; participate more in events hosted by local commerce departments. Whether partners or clients, target mainstream leading enterprises, even if it takes longer and requires more effort. Establishing lighthouse projects is especially important when first going overseas. Additionally, core team operations on online platforms like LinkedIn can directly generate business opportunities.
Long Liangyu, Founder of YuanCang Overseas Warehouse: Southeast Asian Warehousing in High-Growth Phase; US Tariffs Have Limited Impact on Cross-Border E-Commerce
Southeast Asia's overall political situation is relatively stable. While the market isn't as large as Europe or America's, it contains entrepreneurial opportunities. Previously, Southeast Asian e-commerce mainly relied on small-package shipping from China, unable to meet offline customers' demands for extreme speed. I saw opportunity here and founded YuanCang during the pandemic.
We were fortunate to hit several important inflection points. Southeast Asian e-commerce penetration kept rising; within two years of our founding, small-package shipping from China grew exponentially, online GMV rising from tens of billions of dollars to over $100 billion, while shipping shifted from China-based to local fulfillment. Currently, Southeast Asia's daily online order volume exceeds 30 million, with 90% fulfilled locally. So our business has grown extremely fast — 8x in year two versus year one, 5x in year three versus year two. Even with a larger base, we expect two to three times growth this year versus last.
We help clients solve the full chain from China consolidation to Southeast Asian warehouse receiving and shipping. Of roughly 400,000 Chinese online merchants in Southeast Asia, we aim to serve about 10%, or 30,000 to 50,000.
US high tariffs actually have very limited impact on our cross-border e-commerce sector. Even at recent peak tariff costs, they didn't exceed pandemic-era costs, so it's not as severe as people imagine. The US is now strict on country-of-origin checks, which may more heavily impact some leading enterprises with high market share, but most below-the-waist companies can find many countermeasures.
Icey Bin, Global Brand Lead at a Leading Robot Vacuum Company: Southeast Asian GTM Channel Analysis and Differentiated Tactics
Southeast Asia combines multiple languages, multiple religions, high youth demographics, and significant Chinese populations. In this complex market environment, you can determine which market to enter first based on channel conditions. In online channels, platform e-commerce Shopee and Lazada drive dual momentum, social e-commerce TikTok Shop accelerates penetration, but penetration varies significantly by country — TikTok Shop has 32% penetration in Indonesia, while other countries range from 10% to 20%.
Shopee holds first place in most Southeast Asian countries including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, with social commerce and mobile experience as core advantages. Shopee operates on a store logic, not single-link bestseller creation — more like Taobao.
Lazada ranks second in Southeast Asian online channels with Alibaba's support, competitive in logistics and category coverage.
Tokopedia focuses on the Indonesian market, dominating after synergy with TikTok Shop. Social commerce models are exploding among young users; currently may suit small goods and small packages. For high-ticket products, it's more of a marketing channel.
To explode online channels, pick one country first — like Indonesia — master that market, then replicate to other countries.
For offline channels: in mature markets like Singapore and Malaysia, chain channels dominate and emphasize brand experience — you can reuse playbooks from Europe and America, building brand well within channels. In emerging markets like Vietnam and Indonesia, traditional channels still dominate — many small independent dealers or mom-and-pop stores offline. Find one large local dealer; manage that relationship well along with marketing and brand influence in the market, and sales channels open up.
Specific tactics require adjustment by situation. If a new product has high price, it still needs to go through brand and marketing cycles — otherwise hard to sell at premium prices. If the new product is low-price, relying on cost-performance, you can directly capture market through online channels quickly and cleanly. If budget is limited or you're not launching a new product, the recommended play is concentrating budget on one channel, going all-in.
Online-offline channel integration should adapt to local conditions. Online uses e-commerce platforms and social media as dual engines, covering Southeast Asia's young customer base, leveraging content to break circles. Offline uses quality country agents as mainstay, building brand direct-operated flagship stores in Singapore and Malaysia to establish brand image.
