The XR Bubble and the Trajectory Ahead: From Polygon Games to Reality Fusion

"Welcome to the era of spatial computing." Open Apple's Vision Pro product page, and these words slowly emerge from the darkness. This groundbreaking product has sent waves of excitement through the XR industry, a familiar thrill that recalls autumn 2021, when Facebook announced its rebrand to Meta, marking the company's official transformation. In 2023, Huawei and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology jointly published the Cloud VR+ Scenario White Paper, which explicitly stated: "Cloud VR gaming will be the first category of consumer-intensive interactive services aggregated on cloud platforms." Yet the cyclical ups and downs of the XR industry, along with bubbles inflated by excessive expectations, have kept most observers in a wait-and-see mode.

For this episode, we are honored to welcome Rui, former General Manager of Intelligent Devices and AR/VR at Lenovo US, and former product lead at Amazon US and Xiaomi. As a veteran product practitioner and devoted XR enthusiast, he joins ZhenFund investment manager Yuguang Sun to discuss how we should embrace this new wave of technological change.

Rui served as product lead at Amazon US and Xiaomi, where his team achieved remarkable success: back-to-back "Best of CES" awards in 2018 and 2019, over a hundred media awards, four Red Dot Awards, and three Good Design Awards. Products he led were featured by the Google CEO himself at the Google I/O global developer conference. During his tenure as General Manager of Intelligent Devices and AR/VR at Lenovo US, he oversaw marketing for several heavyweight products, including the once wildly popular DayDream standalone headset, the Mirage AR glasses that brought Disney IP into augmented reality, and the widely acclaimed Oculus Rift S. He firmly believes: making great products is the goal, not the means.

As seasoned practitioners, they have personally navigated multiple industry waves. In this conversation, they discuss the cyclical nature of the XR industry; the distinctive features of existing MR products on the market; the trade-offs between standalone and tethered headsets; why so many VR devices on the market score poorly on comfort; what products we should expect as XR devices enter their second wave of explosive growth; whether AR and VR will eventually replace phones and computers as primary gateways for traffic; how AI might accelerate XR's progress; and what mindset XR entrepreneurs should adopt as they face the coming "technology wave."

Host: Yuguang Sun, Investment Manager at ZhenFund

Guest: Rui, former General Manager of Intelligent Devices and AR/VR at Lenovo US, former product lead at Amazon US and Xiaomi

Timeline

02:43 People placed excessive expectations on the VR industry. Reality proved harsh.

04:42 A comprehensive comparison of existing VR products on the market

07:38 Standalone vs. tethered headsets

13:41 Practitioners need to know how to identify when an industry crosses the chasm

14:35 The most impressive new applications emerging in the VR industry

20:01 A deep dive into mainstream VR interaction modes

23:41 Content companies will proactively adapt to VR devices' native interaction methods

31:23 The underlying display technology is fundamentally unchanged, but Apple has pushed craftsmanship to the extreme

34:31 Apple's MR comes closer to the real world than competitors, but still has far to go

39:20 Looking forward to a 3D-native ecosystem

42:03 The reasons behind Vision Pro's high pricing and the possibility of future price reductions

45:44 Three-dimensional devices will inevitably replace two-dimensional ones

51:29 Whether AI will bring qualitative leaps to the XR industry

55:52 Lessons learned by practitioners after two cycles

Reference Materials

Remote Rendering: A computer graphics technique that involves generating images on a remote server and transmitting the results to a local device for display. In many cases, this approach can deliver higher image quality and more complex rendering effects, as remote servers typically possess far greater processing power than personal computers or mobile devices.

3D-Natives: A high-performance 3D rendering technology that can substantially improve the performance of 3D games and applications. It allows applications to directly access the GPU (graphics processing unit) for 3D rendering without going through intermediate graphics APIs.

XR-Native: A native cross-platform technical solution for extended reality (XR) application development. XR stands for Extended Reality, encompassing augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and mixed reality (MR) technologies.

6DoF (Six Degrees of Freedom): A motion tracking technology with six degrees of freedom that can simultaneously track an object's rotation and position in 3D space. In virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), 6DoF technology enables more realistic motion tracking and environmental interaction.

Fresnel lens: A specialized optical lens distinguished by its unique ring-shaped structure and lightweight properties. In virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR), it provides a wider field of view, more precise light control, and facilitates device miniaturization and cost reduction.

Pancake lens: A specialized type of optical lens typically used in miniaturized optical systems such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) devices. Named for its thin, flat shape resembling a pancake.

The Gran Turismo series is a popular simulation racing game developed by Polyphony Digital, with multiple generations released on PlayStation consoles.

Beat Saber: A virtual reality rhythm game in which players wield dual lightsabers to slash through blocks in time with the music. Successfully combining music with VR physicality, it has become one of the most popular VR games.

Apple Vision Pro

Huawei Cloud VR+ Scenario White Paper